Most housing statistics move a little each month and mean very little on their own. Every so often, one crosses a threshold that is worth pausing on. This is one of those.
Recent national reporting shows total housing inventory rising above 1.6 million units, the first time it has been at that level since late 2019. Supply now sits at roughly a five-month pace nationally, up from the mid-four-month range a year ago. Existing home sales, meanwhile, ticked down slightly month over month and year over year, with thirty-year mortgage rates reported in the mid-to-high six-percent range in early September.
Put those together and you get a market that is, for the first time in years, genuinely closer to balance.
What balance actually means
The rule of thumb most agents use is that roughly six months of supply is a neutral market. Below that favors sellers. Above it favors buyers. Five months is not a buyer’s market. It is the edge of normal, which is a place this country has not been in a long time.
That matters because the last several years trained everyone on a market that no longer exists. Buyers who remember 2021 still brace for competition that in many price points is not there. Sellers who remember 2021 still expect a weekend of offers. Neither expectation is serving people well right now.
Three practical takeaways
For buyers: you have more to choose from and more room to ask. Inspection negotiations, closing cost contributions, and rate buy-downs are all live conversations again. Reporting this year has shown a substantial share of U.S. sales closing with some form of seller concession. The tradeoff is that rates remain elevated, so the monthly payment math still requires real planning.
For sellers: more inventory means more competition for the same buyer. Pricing correctly at launch matters more than it has in years, because a buyer with fifteen options does not chase an overpriced listing, they just look at the other fourteen. Condition and presentation are back to being differentiators.
For everyone: national numbers are context, not a local forecast. Greater Houston has been running its own version of this story, with active listings reaching record levels and months of supply above the national figure. That means the balance shift here has been, if anything, further along than the national average, and it varies enormously by neighborhood and price point.
The one thing not to do
Do not make a decision based on a headline. A five-month national supply figure tells you almost nothing about what a specific home on a specific street in Katy, Cypress, The Heights, or Sugar Land is worth this month. It tells you the weather, not the forecast for your block.
If you want to know what these conditions actually mean for your home or your search, we track this market neighborhood by neighborhood across the greater Houston area. We would be glad to pull the numbers that apply to you. Call or text us anytime.
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The Audra O’Neal Team | ONTX Realty Partners
Call or Text: 281-972-8200
Email: ONealTeamRocks@gmail.com
Web: http://www.ONealTeamRocks.com
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